"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." -- attributed to Mark TwainIn other words, the signature characteristic of Orange Swans is delusion.
Rethinking "Black Swans"As I have mentioned at the start of this series, the "Black Swan event" metaphor is a conceptual mess. (This post is sixth in the series "Think You Understand Black Swans? Think Again".)
It doesn't make sense to label any set of events as "Black Swans". It's not the events themselves, but instead they are processes that involve generating mechanisms, our evidence about them, and our method of reasoning that make them unexpected and surprising.